US People - Your Choice for 2008 Candidate

[Usagi]

The basis of your argument seems to be that your vote doesn't count or doesn't make a difference, but I disagree.

And I also think that the people who are fucking up this country want people like you to believe they can't make a difference.

A wise man once said that all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

I think it's important to do something, anything, if for now other reason than to make it clear where you stand.

PS: It was Edmund Burke.

[Jeff]

I would like to hear your rational for how my vote can decide the election.

[Usagi]

So, you'll only vote if your personal vote decides the election? You obviously don't expect that.

However, if enough people in Florida who feel the way you do had instead gone to the polls and made their voice heard, we'd have a different leader today, and we wouldn't be mired in a pointless war in Iraq, helping create the terrorists our children will have to fight. And we're not talking about millions: thousands, even hundreds, would have changed the outcome.

And I'd like to hear why you don't apply your rationale to every aspect of your life. How often do you think your choices and personal decisions mean the difference between two dramatically different outcomes?

Maybe more often than you know, but still not too often. So why do anything? In the end none of it matters. 100 years from now, who will know the difference?

But maybe right here and right now it makes a difference to this sea star.

[Jeff]

So, you'll only vote if your personal vote decides the election? You obviously don't expect that.

Exactly. I don't expect my vote to change anything, so I don't vote. Why else would you?

However, if enough people in Florida who feel the way you do had instead gone to the polls and made their voice heard, we'd have a different leader today, and we wouldn't be mired in a pointless war in Iraq, helping create the terrorists our children will have to fight. And we're not talking about millions: thousands, even hundreds, would have changed the outcome.

As I said, an election is a discrete event. I don't care if the difference was forty million or seventeen. Anything more than one is exactly the same. Even if I lived in Florida instead of California and the 2000 election wasn't an anomaly of American history, I still wouldn't vote.

And I'd like to hear why you don't apply your rationale to every aspect of your life. How often do you think your choices and personal decisions mean the difference between two dramatically different outcomes?

I don't think these discrete events are very common in everyday life. I can't think of an example that isn't absurd or doesn't involve the anonymous voting of hundreds of millions of people.

Maybe more often than you know, but still not too often. So why do anything? In the end none of it matters. 100 years from now, who will know the difference?

The difference is that voting in an election does absolutely nothing. The outcome is going to be absolutely the same whether or not you vote in it. On the other hand, other things I like to do actually have an outcome I have control over. I stick to those things.

[zatoichi]

If you were the only person not voting, that reasoning might work. But you're not. And if we get another crappy president, maybe you're one vote wouldn't have changed it, and maybe a few thousand other peoples votes wouldn't have changed it, but that collection of votes can change it. so take a halfhour of your life and go vote. It's not that hard. (admitedley I have no experience voting, not being eighteen, but I get to vote in the next presidential election, and you bet your ass I will.)

[Grayswandir]

And I'd like to hear why you don't apply your rationale to every aspect of your life.

Because it makes life less boring.

How often do you think your choices and personal decisions mean the difference between two dramatically different outcomes?

About 60% of the time, but then 42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot, but the world is a conspiracy, but then 99% of all conspiracies are hoaxes and...I don't know where I'm going with that.

But maybe right here and right now it makes a difference to this sea star.

Why worry about it right now? The '08 Elections aren't even close to happening yet...He might change his mind if he likes one of the candidates later on in the running, or maybe not, or maybe he will, or maybe the world will implode on itself leaving only the small, bunion-shaped, creatures collectively called [CENSORED] to control what's left of the Earth.

[Jeff]

If you were the only person not voting, that reasoning might work. But you're not. And if we get another crappy president, maybe you're one vote wouldn't have changed it, and maybe a few thousand other peoples votes wouldn't have changed it, but that collection of votes can change it. so take a halfhour of your life and go vote. It's not that hard. (admitedley I have no experience voting, not being eighteen, but I get to vote in the next presidential election, and you bet your ass I will.)

This is a non sequitur. How does this change the fact that my vote doesn't matter?

[Usagi]

I think you're wrong when you say your vote doesn't change anything.

If no vote has any effect, than how are elections decided?

If your hypothesis is valid, it should hold for all numbers between zero and infinity, but obviously it doesn't.

I could agree if you said that you feel like your vote doesn't count or change anything, but even then I'd argue that you were wrong.

Don't you feel it's important to join with other people who feel as you do in an effort to make a positive change?

If you never feel that way at all, then it seems like a bleakly subjective view of life. Kinda like being in a Kafka story.

You don't ever wake up feeling like a cockroach, do you?

[Grayswandir]

I think you're wrong when you say your vote doesn't change anything.

What makes you right?

If no vote has any effect, than how are elections decided?

Popular opinion?

Don't you feel it's important to join with other people who feel as you do in an effort to make a positive change?

But then you have the other people who think that the change you're trying to make is utter and complete bullshit.

If you never feel that way at all, then it seems like a bleakly subjective view of life. Kinda like being in a Kafka story.

You don't ever wake up feeling like a cockroach, do you?

It's kinda funny...
Here we are in the US (some of us...), trying to convince someone that it's wrong that he isn't voting because he believes that his vote won't matter...the US prides itself on freedom of choice right?
He see's it a different way than you do, but that doesn't make him wrong and it doesn't make you wrong either.

[Jeff]

I think you're wrong when you say your vote doesn't change anything. If no vote has any effect, than how are elections decided?

Votes certainly have value. It is a function of how many other people vote. Unfortunately, since so many people vote in the US, the value of an individual vote (i.e. mine) approaches zero. It is not zero, but like the odds of winning the lottery, it is so close to zero that for all intents and purposes it is zero.

I certainly am not apathetic and if my vote had more value, I certainly would vote. However, right now, the odds of my vote changing the outcome of the election is probably orders of magnitude smaller than winning the lottery. Pretty much zero.

Don't you feel it's important to join with other people who feel as you do in an effort to make a positive change? If you never feel that way at all, then it seems like a bleakly subjective view of life. Kinda like being in a Kafka story. You don't ever wake up feeling like a cockroach, do you?

I feel strongly about many things, including the president. However, casting a vote that will not change anything is not one of them.

[Usagi]

I didn't say that Jeff is wrong not to vote; it's a choice he makes based on his observation and analysis. And he agreed that votes have value.

But I believe the analysis and conclusions, though logical, are somewhat specious. To say "for all intents and purposes, it is zero" sounds like a conclusion drawn from logic, but really it's only an opinion. It's really only for your purposes, not all purposes.

For all intents and purposes, the differences in elevation between the highest and lowest points on the surface of a steel ball bearing is zero. Yet statistically speaking, the surface of the earth has less variation than a steel ball bearing.

So, you could say that for all intents and purposes, the earth is smoother than a ball bearing and the difference between the elevation of Death Valley and K2 is zero. Statistically and logically, you'd be correct; in practical terms, there's a very big difference.

If you're using statistical analysis, then what is the cut-off for when a vote loses value for you? One in a thousand? One in a million? One in 10 million? Do you vote in local election, but not state and national?

I think that the more people there are, the more important it is to vote, not less. This is especially true when single-issue voters are attracted to vote by putting hot-button issues on a referendum. It's easy to say your vote doesn't count, so why bother, but people like you need to vote to keep this type of trick being successful, as it was in the last election.

I believe in everyone's right to go to hell in their own hand-basket, but I wish you'd vote. It's actually a selfish wish on my part; I want more people like me to vote to help me protect the rights I have that I feel are in danger, and to help reestablish what I believe is the proper direction for the country.

If you aren't voting, what are you doing to let your opinions be heard and to effect positive changes?

[Jeff]

But I believe the analysis and conclusions, though logical, are somewhat specious. To say "for all intents and purposes, it is zero" sounds like a conclusion drawn from logic, but really it's only an opinion. It's really only for your purposes, not all purposes.

For all intents and purposes, the differences in elevation between the highest and lowest points on the surface of a steel ball bearing is zero. Yet statistically speaking, the surface of the earth has less variation than a steel ball bearing.

Well, at this point we are just mincing the interpretation of words and making dubious analogies. It seems that you have an issue with my difference between zero and 0.000001. When someone says that you have no chance of winning the lottery, of course they don't mean that you literally do not have a shot of winning. They mean that you have a 0.000001% chance of winning, which colloquially, is known as zero.

I acknowledge that it is possible for one vote to decide the next president. I just believe that it is so ridiculously small it is not worth my time to try and be that vote.

If you're using statistical analysis, then what is the cut-off for when a vote loses value for you? One in a thousand? One in a million? One in 10 million? Do you vote in local election, but not state and national?

If there is a reasonable chance that my vote will affect the outcome and I care about the outcome, I will vote. By reasonable, we are talking say, one in fifty. San Francisco elections have hundreds of thousands of voters and historically there has never been a vote decided by one person. Therefore, I stay out of that one.

I think that the more people there are, the more important it is to vote, not less. This is especially true when single-issue voters are attracted to vote by putting hot-button issues on a referendum. It's easy to say your vote doesn't count, so why bother, but people like you need to vote to keep this type of trick being successful, as it was in the last election.

This seems to go against the basic axioms of mathematics.

I believe in everyone's right to go to hell in their own hand-basket, but I wish you'd vote. It's actually a selfish wish on my part; I want more people like me to vote to help me protect the rights I have that I feel are in danger, and to help reestablish what I believe is the proper direction for the country.

Well, assuming that I voted for the mainstream democratic candidate.

If you aren't voting, what are you doing to let your opinions be heard and to effect positive changes?

Nothing. Maybe some day I will have a video game with an audience of millions of people (maybe my secret project w/ David) and then I can broadcast my views. That will be my "vote". Until then, why waste my time?

This will probably be more controversial than my original "no voting" assertion and can be more easily debated, since it's not just a logical, mathematical observation.

To be honest, if I cared so deeply about the politics of my country, I think I would find a country that matched my beliefs more closely and move there instead of helplessly trying to influence 300 million people to change for me.

In reality, I think politics are overrated. I sincerely cannot tell the difference between this administration and the last in my daily life, aside from having to take my shoes off at the airport. In California, UC Berkeley (my university) theoretically had some budget changes by Schwarzenegger which I have yet to notice. In UC Berkeley's student government, my gym membership and bus pass was slightly lowered and my tuition was slightly increased. In San Francisco, MUNI increased their fare by 25 cents and a new freeway off ramp was built that saves me 3 minutes. A road I occasionally drive on was touched up.

Seriously, that is the absolute sum of how politics have affected my life recently. And people wonder why I don't get all excited to vote?

[rudel_ic]

Jeff, the truth is that the whole world around you is just a secret gameshow built for you and you win when you vote! VOTE ALREADY SO WE CAN GO HOME!

Actually, Jeff is right. He doesn't make a difference. It's the law of big numbers. Politicians want to keep that truth from you, but that's how it is.

That's also the truth behind the world: Big numbers. Each one of you just plays a role in your little world. But the big picture doesn't change because of some flashing pixel (that's you).

As long as you are happy with what you're doing, everything is okay! Whether you vote or you don't vote is your thing, do whatever makes you happy! The world doesn't care anyway!

[Silb]

Oh, a debate.

I agree with Jeff. I fail to see what part you can really object to in:
1. Casting my own particular vote has no effect.
2. I don't care for things that have no effect.
3. Therefore I don't vote.

Objection: "If everybody did the same, we'd be in trouble". That's true, but irrelevant, because clause 1 is "my own" vote.

There is one reason to vote though, and it's purely moral. Since you're part of society and society needs people to vote, it is your moral duty to vote, even though it's irrational individually (that is, with my definition of morals from the other thread - ie defined by the interests of society - see now? that's a good definition ).

Side note: birth of democracy: Athens paid people to take part in political life. Ok, the context was slightly different, and the system got abused, but I think voting should come with some incentive for the system to work best (that might not be in the interest of politicians, though).
(Unless your position is that the important part of democracy lies in people theoretically being able to vote (which instigates competition between leaders to not be abusive), rather than effectively doing so, and that things are good enough as they are now (ie some people voting).)

In reality, I think politics are overrated. I sincerely cannot tell the difference between this administration and the last in my daily life, aside from having to take my shoes off at the airport. In California, UC Berkeley (my university) theoretically had some budget changes by Schwarzenegger which I have yet to notice. In UC Berkeley's student government, my gym membership and bus pass was slightly lowered and my tuition was slightly increased. In San Francisco, MUNI increased their fare by 25 cents and a new freeway off ramp was built that saves me 3 minutes. A road I occasionally drive on was touched up.

Seriously, that is the absolute sum of how politics have affected my life recently. And people wonder why I don't get all excited to vote?

Well, I agree, and it further proves my point: since the reason to care about politics is mainly for other people, it really is all a matter of morals. Ah.

[Usagi]

Mark Twain said there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. My Mom said figures don't lie, but liars can figure. You're not lying, but statistics may be lying to you. And I know politicians and their handlers are lying to you.

I don't have an issue with the difference between zero and any small number, even if it's "infinitely" small. Take 10 to the negative 7th, or 70th for that matter: it's still the difference between nothing and something, and that difference truly is infinite.

And you're making the choice to do nothing instead of something. So in a way it's a self-fulfilling prophecy: nothing I do makes a difference, so I do nothing, which ensures that nothing I do makes any difference.

This seems to go against the basic axioms of mathematics.

I'm really arguing against using "basics axioms of mathematics" to make decisions like this.

I can't believe you would use this rationale to make many other decisions. It's like using Zeno's Paradox to prove you never arrive anywhere, or never catch up to someone.

And the solution is the same. Zeno's paradox comes about because of a confusion of infinities: that, simply, an infinite sum does not imply an infinite result.

And an infinitely small sum does not imply an infinitely small result. You believe that there is no evidence of an effect of your vote, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

You make your own choice, which I think is great. I may disagree with your choice, but so what? You should act on your opinion, not mine.

However, I think it's important for intelligent people with an ability to analyze complex problems to be involved in daily politics.

If you say, "I don't vote, 'cuz it's pointless, but here's how I feel about this issue," you may have an interesting debate, but you undercut your own opinion from the start.

But it you talk with people about what you're going to do, and why, I believe you're more likely to have an effect. I goes beyond the effect of your individual vote.

You can't change the world at a stroke, you have to do it the slow way: one mind, one heart at a time.

Thinking and arguing are important (that's why I like these threads; it helps me figure out what I really believe) but they should lead to action. Sometimes no action is best, but I don't think this is one of those cases.

Most people don't vote for various reasons in the US. Right now, the people who do vote are split about evenly between liberal and conservative. More conservatives vote, per capita, than liberals.

I believe that the true basic nature nature of well-informed, intelligent people is liberal. If more liberals vote, I believe the country will change for the better. If this country changes for the better, the world will change for the better.

I agree with Jeff. I fail to see what part you can really object to in:
1. Casting my own particular vote has no effect.
2. I don't care for things that have no effect.
3. Therefore I don't vote.

I object to the same thing I object to in many, if not all syllogisms. It takes for granted unproven conclusions. It's not proven that your own particular vote has no effect.

If it's your opinion, I can't object, but I can still disagree.

...since the reason to care about politics is mainly for other people, it really is all a matter of morals. Ah.

Yah, it's morals again, but I think we're done with that topic. And this one too.

If you truly think politics has no more effect on your life than smoother roads and more expensive bus passes, you should read The Future Of Life by E. O. Wilson. It might make you think again.